November 10 2010
by Scott Johnson

Appointment Viewing

Someone who’s opinion I highly respect posited to me that appointment viewing of video, except for live sports, was on its way to zero; that all pre-recorded TV would be consumed on demand.  I disagree, and I say why below, but this got me thinking about how we will consume different types of video content in the future.  I think it looks like this, where dark is more viewing and lighter is less.

So there will still be a lot of viewing at time of release or time of event, and an opportunity to monetize there as ever.  The new opportunity is in the “watch On Demand” rows, as those move from 2nd tier channels with 2nd tier advertising to on demand in the living room, on the desk and in the palm.

Live Sports & News – Nobody cares to watch reruns of this stuff.  Not likely to change.

TV Shows – This is where there is massive change brewing.  That first airing, “Thursday at 9:00, 8:00 Central” of the next exciting installment of Mad Men or Sopranos or Lost, is always going to attract a large audience.  There is a “need to know what happens next” aspect to this, and a social angel – being able to share your reaction to the show with friends – that drives a need to watch “live.”  Those who couldn’t make the broadcast time will watch it on demand within 48 hours.  And that will account for 70% or so of the lifetime consumption of that content.

Movies – In Theatres for the “have to see it when it comes out” segment, and on demand thereafter, 90% of views from rentals and 10% from purchase.  Quite close to how it is today.

UGC – AKA YouTube.  99% consumed on the web.  Same as today, although some of the viral clips are being morphed into TV shows and consumed in the living room.

Comments are closed.

Top of the page