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Is the EU actually right about something?

> Update on 11/30.  I spoke to several of my companies, and learned that MySQL from Sun is not something they can’t live without.  They would prefer Oracle didn’t own it, but the premise that Oracle will harm startups as an owner of MySQL is not true.  The argument that Sun/MySQL is the preferred vendor for mid/larger enterprise, and hence hard to replace in larger IT departments, is valid however and hence the argument that the EU has a good argument, that Sun/MySQL is the only widely accepted open source alternative to proprietary RDBMS is valid.

(original post)

I really hope Oracle is not permitted to buy Sun. MySQL is a drain on Oracle’s revenues, and Oracle is seeing some some very unpleasant writing on the wall, and is shelling out serious cash to control the threat.  If I were Oracle I would be worried.  But make no mistake – consumers will be harmed here.   MySQL puts the “M” in the LAMP stack, and granting control of any component of that stack to Oracle, IBM or MSFT is bad for consumers.  That stack is THE way web applications get built on a shoe string.  Bought an Oracle RDBMS recently?  Did Larry Ellison accept a shoe string as payment?  I thought not.

The US antitrust folks argue as follows (from a statement issued Sunday):

“There are many open-source and proprietary database competitors. The Division concluded, based on the specific facts at issue in the transaction, that consumer harm is unlikely because customers would continue to have choices from a variety of well established and widely accepted database products. The Department also concluded that there is a large community of developers and users of Sun’s open source database with significant expertise in maintaining and improving the software, and who could support a derivative version of it.”

The problem is that regulators look at revenues to determine market share and MySQL has low revenue, so the put-together doesn’t come close to any of their triggers.  Technically the DOJ is likely right – that there is no antitrust violation according to US law.  But to say consumer harm is unlikely feels hopelessly naïve.  MySQL is the only real way to avoid the Oracle/DB2 tax on Unix servers.  So, while I see most of the decisions and fines by the EU as thinly veiled efforts to stick it to successful US companies, in this case I think their POV is actually quite enlightened.